“Almost a year ago we shared a calculation according to which “Over $120 Billion In Federal Student Loans In Default”, suggesting that the next credit crisis has already arrived. Since then the topic of the student loan bubble has become a household topic. Sadly, that does not mean it has gotten any better. In fact, according to the latest Education Department data it has gotten as bad as it has ever been. As Bloomberg reports, not only have overdue student loans reached an all-time high but the number of young people aged 20-24 out of school and unemployed is at a record high: not quite astronomic by European standards, but hardly a ringing endorsement of an economy set to transition labor tasks to the next generation, especially with the employment of those 55 and older at all time highs. “
Via Zero Hedge
“The Greek economic depressionary catastrophe continues to merrily chug along. Hours ago, Greek Elstat reported that February unemployment rose to a new record high of 27.0%, with the January number revised from 27.2% to 26.7%, up from 21.9% in February 2012, and almost as if unlike the Greek BLS is not even trying to fudge numbers anymore and wants to show a deteriorating situation (or, as it was called in the Old Normal – “reality”). “
Via Zero Hedge
“Two things make the problem more pressing now. The financial crisis and its aftermath had an unusually big effect on them. Many employers sack the newest hires first, so a recession raises youth joblessness disproportionately. The number of young people out of work in the OECD is almost a third higher than in 2007. Second, the emerging economies that have the largest and fastest-growing populations of young people also have the worst-run labour markets.
Why is this so important? A number of studies have found that people who begin their careers without work are likely to have lower wages and greater odds of future joblessness than those who don’t. A wage penalty of up to 20%, lasting for around 20 years, is common. The scarring seems to worsen fast with the length of joblessness and is handed down to the next generation, too – leading to a vicious cycle that weighs on growth dramatically.
Countries with the lowest youth jobless rates have a close relationship between education and work. Germany has a long tradition of high-quality vocational education and apprenticeships, which in recent years have helped it reduce youth unemployment despite only modest growth. Countries with high youth unemployment are short of such links.”
Via Zero Hedge
‘The Dow Jones is soaring. The unemployment rate is stable. People are shopping. America is in recovery.
Or is it?
Despite all of the positive spin being put on the global and domestic economic recovery, the truth is that nothing of the sort is actually happening.
Any observant analyst can deduce that 15,000+ stock market values are a result of easy money being pumped into investment banks, who then slam that money straight into markets. The Fed itself is reportedly providing direct liquidity to the system. They can do this forever, so long as our creditors let them. And, until they’re stopped, they’ll continue to convince most Americans that financial markets and the economy have been stabilized.
Underneath all the hoop-la, however, is the reality of the situation.”
Via SHTF Plan
“If you think that the latest employment numbers are good news, you might want to look again. In April 2013, 58.6 percent of all working age Americans had a job. But three years ago, in April 2010, 58.7 percent of all working age Americans had a job. Well, you may argue, that is not much of a difference. And that is precisely my point. The percentage of Americans that have a job fell like a rock during the last recession. It dropped from about 63 percent all the way down to below 59 percent, and it has stayed below 59 percent for 44 months in a row. So where is the recovery? This is the first time in the post-World War II era that the employment-population ratio has not bounced back after the end of a recession. So anyone that tells you that we are experiencing an employment recovery is lying to you. Yes, the U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs last month. But it takes nearly that many jobs just to keep up with population growth. The truth is that we are just treading water.”
“Following the March NFP disappointment, it was only reasonable to expect a modest beat in this month’s data which came at +165,000, on expectations of +140,000, and following a revision to the March number from 88K to 138K. The unemployment rate declined from 7.6% to 7.5% beating, expectations of an unchanged print. The flipside, as always, is that the labor participation rate remained flat, at 63.3%, once again the lowest since 1979.”
Via Zero Hedge
” The gloomy news continued for jobs as ADP reported Wednesday that private companies created just 119,000 new positions in April.
That was well below expectations and confirmation that the labor market is slowing heading into late spring and early summer.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expected the ADP report to show the private sector created 150,000 jobs in April, down from 158,000 in March.”
” Two months from now, revised government estimates are likely to show that the economy is even bigger than the currently stated $15 trillion.
And while the numbers may make some blink or gasp, the mere size of gross domestic product won’t hide the reality that in terms of actual growth, this is also the worst economy in 83 years.
GDP growth is in the midst of its longest sub-3 percent annual growth rate since 1929, the beginning of the Great Depression, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The economy hasn’t topped 3 percent since 2005—before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke took over—and is unlikely to do so this year. “
“With the March Payroll number printing at a miserable 88K compared to ADP’s 158K print, it was only a matter of time before Mark Zandi, still furious from getting the news he won’t be the next GSE Tzar, revised the last month’s data to 131K as he just did. Concurrently he also announced that the just released April ADP was a huge miss to expectations of 150K, printing at just 119K, or a 31K miss. This was the 5th month in a row of declines excluding the small bounce in February data. It also means that the combined miss to expectations including March (original estimate +200K) and April (estimate 150K) is precisely 100K. This excludes whatever revisions ADP will do to the April number following the even bigger looming NFP miss. Manufacturing jobs? -10,000. Oh yes, anyone looking for seasonally unadjusted ADP data, good luck – keep on looking. In short: yet another atrocious economic data point which however may need the support of the equally horrible sub-49 Mfg ISM due out shortly to take out 1600 in the S&P. “
Via Zero Hedge
“While near record low sovereign bond spreads and near record high equity prices have been taken as vindication by the European elites that all is well and ‘we just need a little less fauxsterity’ to be done with this crisis; the data, as it so often does, says the exact opposite. European unemployment just broke above 12% for the first time ever and European youth unemployment remains miserably above 24%. And while 1-in-4 under-25s unemployed is a bad enough statistic in terms of likely emergence of social unrest, the individual countries are in general deteriorating once again at a faster rate. French youth unemployment has risen for 13 months in a row to a record 26.5%; Spain (at 57.2% of under-25s unemployed) is catching up fast to Greece’s stunning 59.1%; but perhaps the most concerning for the broader economies is the fact that Italy’s youth unemployment has now topped that of Portugal at 38.4%. The only nation to see a drop in its youth unemployment was Ireland – which fell back modestly to January levels. Not a rosy picture, but then again, it doesn’t matter…”
Via Zero Hedge